On the Eve of the 2019 General Election

The General Election of December 2019 is weird for a number of reasons. One, it is taking place if not in the dead of winter, then as near as dammit. British elections are usually held in May or June not in cold and rainy December. Two, this will be the third General Election in four years. And three, the General Election will be the second in succession called by a Governing Party that has been unable to enact its legislative agenda.

The graph below (from @tortoise) explains why British politics is currently so weird. The x axis show the relative strength of the Tory (blue dots) and Labour (red dots) vote in each constituency the y axis shows the strength of the leave and remain vote in each constituency. Lots of Labour seats are pro Brexit: many Tory seats are anti-Brexit.

In order to win on Thursday, a Party leader is going to have to forge a winning coalition out of that quadrant. The polls suggest that Boris Johnson has proven more successful at this task than Jeremy Corbyn. Perhaps surprisingly, the collapse of the Lib Dems and Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party has not done much to move the dial. The Labour Party is now roughly where it was in early October—roughly 10 per cent behind the Conservative Party.

Johnson appears to have put together a coalition that includes traditional Tory voters from the shires with the addition of the elderly and the relatively uneducated voters, who, in the wake of Brexit, have abandoned the Labour Party. Corbyn has had some success with the young, but many centerist Remainers remain unconvinced.

My guess is that by Friday morning we will wake up to a clear Johnson victory. We could even see the biggest Tory majority since 1987. If I had to bet, I would put my money on a Tory majority of between 40 and 60 seats.

In any case, for those watching from the USA—326 is the number to watch (650 seats available) That’s the number Johnson needs to form a government. He probably needs 340 for a truly stable government. In May 2017, the Tories won 317; in 2015 330; and in 2010 306)

The other typically exciting think to watch in a British General Election is the defeat of a so-called “big beast” — a leading cabinet minister. If they lose, their political career is immediately over (see Michael Portillo, see Ed Balls). Look for the results in the constituencies of Dominic Raab, Iain Duncan Smith, and even Johnson himself. On the Labour side—look for the results in Yvette Cooper’s constituency.

In my next post, I will speculate about what happens with a Johnson victory and what it means for the US  (note anyone who refers to Johnson as “Boris” is likely a Tory who finds him endearing.)