On the Eve of the 2019 General Election

The General Election of December 2019 is weird for a number of reasons. One, it is taking place if not in the dead of winter, then as near as dammit. British elections are usually held in May or June not in cold and rainy December. Two, this will be the third General Election in four years. And three, the General Election will be the second in succession called by a Governing Party that has been unable to enact its legislative agenda.

The graph below (from @tortoise) explains why British politics is currently so weird. The x axis show the relative strength of the Tory (blue dots) and Labour (red dots) vote in each constituency the y axis shows the strength of the leave and remain vote in each constituency. Lots of Labour seats are pro Brexit: many Tory seats are anti-Brexit.

In order to win on Thursday, a Party leader is going to have to forge a winning coalition out of that quadrant. The polls suggest that Boris Johnson has proven more successful at this task than Jeremy Corbyn. Perhaps surprisingly, the collapse of the Lib Dems and Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party has not done much to move the dial. The Labour Party is now roughly where it was in early October—roughly 10 per cent behind the Conservative Party.

Johnson appears to have put together a coalition that includes traditional Tory voters from the shires with the addition of the elderly and the relatively uneducated voters, who, in the wake of Brexit, have abandoned the Labour Party. Corbyn has had some success with the young, but many centerist Remainers remain unconvinced.

My guess is that by Friday morning we will wake up to a clear Johnson victory. We could even see the biggest Tory majority since 1987. If I had to bet, I would put my money on a Tory majority of between 40 and 60 seats.

In any case, for those watching from the USA—326 is the number to watch (650 seats available) That’s the number Johnson needs to form a government. He probably needs 340 for a truly stable government. In May 2017, the Tories won 317; in 2015 330; and in 2010 306)

The other typically exciting think to watch in a British General Election is the defeat of a so-called “big beast” — a leading cabinet minister. If they lose, their political career is immediately over (see Michael Portillo, see Ed Balls). Look for the results in the constituencies of Dominic Raab, Iain Duncan Smith, and even Johnson himself. On the Labour side—look for the results in Yvette Cooper’s constituency.

In my next post, I will speculate about what happens with a Johnson victory and what it means for the US  (note anyone who refers to Johnson as “Boris” is likely a Tory who finds him endearing.)

The Politics of Brexit

Professor Glyn Morgan

SU Abroad—London Program

May-June 2020

Draft Syllabus

The aim of the class is to understand the cultural, historical, socio-economic, and political factors that led Britain to vote to leave the European Union. We will look at the causes, consequences, and the process of Brexit. What do these tell us about British politics and society? How will Britain survive outside of the EU? Will Britain become more dependent on the USA? What does Brexit mean for Scotland, Wales, and Ireland (both Ulster and the Republic? What effect will Brexit have on Britain’s racial and ethnic minorities—including current and future immigrants.

This course will be taught in Faraday House, London. We will have a number of visiting speakers from the political, commercial, and national security worlds. We will also make four short visits within Central London to locations (whether a museum, park, building or market) that symbolize European Britain, Commercial Britain, Imperial Britain, and Post-Imperial Britain.

Class Assignments

Short Quiz based on the reading                                                                                 25% of Grade

A 750 word Blog Post on one of the themes of the class                                            35% of Grade

A 15 Minute self-filmed “documentary” or a 10 page essay on an issue related to Brexit       40%          





There are no required texts to purchase.



There is NO final exam.




TOPICS and READINGS

1.      Britain, Europe, and the EU

The EU (as we now know it) was formed in 1957. Why did it take the UK until 1972 until it joined? When and Why did Britain turn Eurosceptic? When did Eurosceptics become Leavers? Why did David Cameron call a referendum in 2016?

Book:

 

Kevin O’Rourke, A Short History of Brexit (selections)

Hugo Young, This Blessed Plot: Britain and Europe from Churchill to Blair (selections)

Articles/Blogs:

Mathew d'Ancona, “Brexit: How a Fringe Idea Took Hold of the Tory Party,” Guardian June 15 2016.

John Lanchester, ‘Brexit Blues,’ LRB, 38: 15 (2016).

Ivan Rogers (2017), The History and Origins of Brexit

Ivan Rogers (2017), “The Inside Story of How David Cameron drove Britain to Brexit,”

Movies/Documentaries:

•      “How Britain Lost Europe” (FT, December 2016) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqT1lneQ28Q

•      Them or US (Part One)

•      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lg0LncoE060&t=40s

•      Them Or Us (Part Two)

•      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HD2ypyiBssY&t=2540s

•      The Poisoned Chalice (in Four Parts)

•      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5Hawmir29w&t=287s

2. Austerity, the Left-behind, and Neo-Liberalism



Some people argue that Brexit was a direct consequence of one or more of the following: (i) “neo-liberal policies” in the period 1997-2008; (ii) The Great Financial Crisis of 2008-2010; and (iii) the Austerity Policies of the Tory Governments 2010-2016. These explanations all emphasize economic causes of Brexit. Are they right to do so? Or is Brexit better explained with reference to cultural factors?

Book

Ian Fraser, Shredded: Inside the Bank that Broke Britain

Simon Wren-Lewis, The Lies We Were Told: Politics, Economics, Austerity, and Brexit (Selections)

Lisa Mackenzie, Getting By (selections)

Articles/Blogs

                       

                        Pippa Norris, Trump, Brexit, and the Rise of Populism



                        William Davies, Populism and the Limits of Neoliberalism



                        Simon-Wren Lewis, What Brexit and Austerity tell us about Economics, Policy and the Media

John Gray, The Strange Death of Liberal Politics

Movies/Documentaries

The Bank that Almost Broke Britain

John Harris, Anywhere But Westminster

3.       Cultural Change, Immigration, and Integration

Rather than explaining Brexit with reference to economic factors, other scholars argue that Brexit can only be explained by cultural factors, such as immigration.

Book:

Roger Eatwell and Matthew Goodwin, National Populism, (Selections)

David Goodhart, The Road to Somewhere (Selections)

Articles and Blogs

Pippa Norris, “Generation Wars Over Brexit and beyond—how young and old are divided over social values” LSE BLOG

Francis Fuyuyama (1990), “The End of History”*

Francis Fukuyama (2018), “Against Identity Politics,” Foreign Affairs, Aug 2018*

Glyn Morgan, “Immigration, European Integration, and Liberal Political Incorporation,”*

Documentary

“The Truth About Immigration in the UK in 2014,” BBC

4.      Imperial Britain, Post-Imperial Britain and Europe

Some people argue that Brexit can best be explained in terms of a nostalgic longing for empire. This thesis has been best put by the Irish write Fintan O’Toole. Many English writers consider O’Toole’s thesis to be absurd. We look at the debate sparked by hos 2018 book.

            Books

Fintan O Toole, Heroic Failure: Brexit and the Politics of Pain (selections)

Articles/Blogs

Robert Saunders, The Myth of Brexit as Imperial Nostalgia

John Lloyd, Why Fintan O’Toole Has Got Britain all wrong

David Goodhart, “Looking for the Soul of England”

Bella Caledonia, Independence day Postponed

Documentaries[GM1] 

The Windrush Generation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izsLi-FB5Fg

5.       The Break-Up of Britain?

The Brexit vote has thrown into question the continuing viability of the Union between England, Ireland, Scotland, and Wales. We look at the factors holding together the Union and focus in particular on Northern Ireland’s borders both North and South and East and West.

BOOK:

Tony Connelly, Brexit and Ireland (selections)

Articles/Blog

Neil Ascherson, Brexit will finish off the Break-Up of Britain

Rhiannon Lucy Coslett, Brexit is Giving Welsh Nationalism a New Appeal

Roger Iwan Scully, “Brexit and Wales”

           

Tariq Modood, Multiculturalism

Tariq Modood, “Multiculturalism can foster a new kind of post-brexit englishness”

Roger Iwan Scully, “Brexit and Wales”

6.      Political Parties, Parliament, and the Law

Brexit has already had major political implications for the UK party system and for the relationship between government, Parliament, and the Courts. We look at these changes and speculate about their future likely consequence.

BOOK:

Kevin O’Rourke, A Short History of Brexit (selections)

Articles and Blog

Chris Lord, The Brexit Vote has Deepened Britain’s Social Divisions

Andrew Gamble, “Taking Back Control: The Political Implications of Brexit,” Journal of European Public Policy 2019

Andrew Gamble, “The Realignment of British Politics in the Wake of Brexit,” Political Quarterly 2019

Glyn Morgan, “Is the EU a Crap 1950s Idea?” in B. Martill and U. Steiger eds.  Brexit and Beyond (2018)  (A discussion of Dominic Cummings Branching Histories Blog )

Richard Tuck, (2016), “The Left Case for Brexit,” Dissent Magazine, June 6

John Gray, “Brexit has Left the British Political Class Trapped in its own History”

Peter Oborne, “I was a Strong Brexiteer” Open Democracy

7.      Post-Brexit Britain—Trade and Security

Once the UK has finally left the EU (if it ever does), the UK will have to create new trade and security arrangements. Some fear that the UK will become dependent on the USA. What is the likely future of the UK post Brexit? And what does Brexit mean for the future of the EU?



Articles and Blogs

Breugel, Europe in a New World Order

How the EU Works—What is the Single Market?

Faisal Islam, Why the Car Industry is Braced For a Brexit Bumpy Ride

Samuel Marc Lowe, “What Chlorinated Chicken Tells Us About Brexit”

Glyn Morgan, “Europe’s Commercial Order and the Limits of Nationalism”

Anthony Evans Pritchard, “Brexit is About the Supremacy of Parliament and Nothing Else,”

Dani Rodrik, “Brexit and the Globalization Trilemma”

Documentaries

•      “Out and Proud”==Faisal Islam—seen through the lens of Sunderland

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KG5jvQyF5bA

---

 [GM1]

The Politics of Brexit

Glyn Morgan

dgmorgan@syr.edu

Syllabus

The aim of this class is to use the lens of Brexit to explore (i) the nature of British society and its politics; and (ii) the place of a post-Brexit UK in Europe and the World.  Among the questions we will examine: (i) Is Brexit a unique phenomenon or part of a global turn towards populist nationalism? (ii) What does Brexit tell us about the social and political cleavages in the UK? (iii) What does Brexit tell us about the strengths and weaknesses of the EU? (iv) Is a post-Brexit UK likely to move closer to the United States or will it remain in the European trade regime?

Required Texts:

            Ben Martill and Ulrike Steiger eds.  Brexit and Beyond (2018) 

The other readings can be accessed either directly from the links on the Syllabus or via Blackboard

Class Assignments

There are three class assignments, each worth 33.3% of the grade

1.      “Blog Post” Writing Assignment Select one of the topics covered in this class and write a blog post. The blog should be around 750 words and designed for a general audience (think in terms of your parents or your roommate) –for guidance take a look at VOX, the LSE blog, or the Monkey Cage. The blog can either be “an explain piece” (here is a common error that I will clarify)  or “an opinion-piece” (here is what I think on this topic and these are the reasons why any reasonable person should agree with me). Your blog should contain hyperlinks that support controversial claims, evidentiary support, and links to further useful literature.  Ideally, your blog will have a headline, an introductory photo, and even a couple of tables or graphs.

2.      Video Presentation/Webcast with Ten Slide Powerpoint.

You must deliver a 5 minute talk that includes a 5 slide Powerpoint on one of the topics covered in the class.  Unlike the Blog, this should be a talk for an informed audience (your fellow classmates, for example). Make the talk interesting. Tell them something they didn’t know or might not have thought about.  Submit the slides and a video file of your talk. You can film yourself using a cellphone or your computer (using Skype or something similar). You will be graded on content, presentation, and the accessibility of the video you deliver. (You can work on this assignment either as an individual or in groups of up to three students. All students in the group will receive the same grade.)

3.       Five Page Report

Your client, a US multinational, is thinking of making a large investment in the UK. They commission a report on the political stability of the UK and Europe over the next 10 years. They want to know (i) what is the single biggest threat to their investment; and (ii) what is the biggest upside to a UK investment.  Your report should have a one page Executive Summary containing at least five but no more than ten bulletin points.  The CEO of the company is known to like graphs, graphics, and numbers.)

 READINGS

1.     BREXIT: Introduction

Glyn Morgan, “The Forever Brexit,”

John Lanchester, ‘Brexit Blues,’ LRB, 38: 15 (2016).

Mathew d'Ancona, (2016) “Brexit: How a Fringe Idea Took Hold of the Tory Party,” Guardian June 15 2016.

Ivan Rogers (2017), The History and Origins of Brexit

Ivan Rogers (2017), “The Inside Story of How David Cameron drove Britain to Brexit,”

Anthony Evans Pritchard, “Brexit is About the Supremacy of Parliament and Nothing Else,”

Dani Rodrik, “Brexit and the Globalization Trilemma”

2.      Who Voted for Brexit and Why?

Pippa Norris, “Generation Wars Over Brexit and beyond—how young and old are divided over social values” LSE BLOG

Tak Wing Chan et al, “Understanding the Social and Cultural Bases of Brexit”  

Documentaries:

“Out and Proud: Where Brexit Leaves Us Now,” (Sky News) July 2016

Brexit—The Battle for Britain (BBC News) July 2016

3.       Brexit and Populism in Comparative Perspective

Roger Eatwell and Matthew Goodwin, National Populism: The Revolt Against Liberal Democracy

4.      Britain’s Uneasy Relationship with Europe and the United States

5.      Derek Leebaert, Grand Improvisation: America Confronts the British Superpower, 1945-1957*

Hugo Young, This Blessed Plot: Britain and Europe from Churchill to Blair*

Glyn Morgan, “Is the EU a Crap 1950s Idea?” in B. Martill and U. Steiger eds.  Brexit and Beyond (2018) 

Documentaries:

“The Poisoned Chalice”

“Them or Us”

6.      Britain’s Longing for Empire and Nostalgia for the War

Catherine Hall, ‘Introduction: thinking the postcolonial, thinking the empire,’ in Catherine Hall (ed), Cultures of Empire (2000).

Antoinette Burton, ‘Who Needs the Nation: interrogating ‘British’ history,’ in Catherine Hall (ed), Cultures of Empire (2000).

Seumas Milne, ‘Britain: imperial nostalgia,’ Le Monde Diplomatique, May, 2005, http://mondediplo.com/2005/05/02empire

            Anthony Barnett, The Lure of Greatness

Sonya Rose, “Sex, citizenship, and the nation in World War II Britain,” American Historical Review, 103 (1998)

Movie: My Beautiful Laundrette (Director: Stephen Frears)

7.      Did Austerity Cause Brexit?

Mark Blyth, Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea*

Paul Krugman, “Can the Euro be Saved?” New York Times 2011

Martin Feldstein, “EMU and International Conflict” (1997)

Nicholas Crafts, “Brexit: Blame it on the banking Crisis” . 

Martin Sandbu, Europe’s Orphan*

Adam Tooze, Crashed*

  [* = selections]

8.      Did Immigration Cause Brexit?

Der Spiegel (online), “Asylum and Migration” http://www.spiegel.de/international/topic/asylum_and_migration/

Eric Kaufman, “Good Fences make Good Neighbours”*

David Goodhardt, The Road to Somewhere Chapters, 4, 5, and 9.*

Dawn Holland, “Labour Mobility Within the EU: The Impact of Enlargement.”

Reiner Klingholz, Europe’s Real Demographic Challenge

Dustmann C and T Frattini (2014), “The fiscal effects of immigration to the UK”, Economic Journal 124 (580)

9.      The Disunited Kingdom and the Multicultural Nation

Tom Nairn, The Break-Up of Britain

Newsweek, “Has Multiculturalism Failed,”

Tariq Modood, Multiculturalism

Tariq Modood, “Multiculturalism can foster a new kind of post-brexit englishness”

Roger Iwan Scully, “Brexit and Wales”

10.  The UK’s Post-Brexit Future

Glyn Morgan, “Brexit, Trump and the Future of Europe”

Jeff Goldberg, “We’re America, Bitch” The Atlantic (June 2018)      

            Jed Purdy, “The Anti-Democratic Worldview of Steve Bannon and Peter Thiel”

Breugel, Europe in a New World Order

Faisal Islam, Why the Car Industry is Braced For a Brexit Bumpy Ride

Samuel Marc Lowe, “What Chlorinated Chicken Tells Us About Brexit”

Ivan Rogers, (2018), “The Real Post-Brexit Options”