Europe's Five Trumps

America’s choice last Tuesday signifies a switching of sides from the liberal internationalist camp, to the populist nationalist one. (Frank Fukuyama FT Nov 11)


We have been discussing five or so crises facing Europe. The election of Donald Trump poses another.

Chanceller Merkl has welcomed Trump's election this way:




PM Theresa May has welcomed Trump this way:

'Britain and the United States have an enduring and special relationship based on the values of freedom, democracy and enterprise.

'We are, and will remain, strong and close partners on trade, security and defence.

'I look forward to working with President-elect Donald Trump, building on these ties to ensure the security and prosperity of our nations in the years ahead.'  

Nigel Farage has been making mischief. He met Trump at the weekend and then announced to the Government that: (a) he would be their best point of access to the President -Elect; and (b) DJT didn't like May and her team for past insults.

The President-Elect has certainly made some controversial moves, including:

(i) Meeting Nigel Farage;

(ii) Appointing the White Supremacist and Anti-Semite Steve Bannon as one of his two main WH deputies; and

(iii) Allowing Bannon to call Marine Le Pen (Head of the Front Nationale) and wish her well--thereby emboldening her and other right-wing parties. (As Gideon Rachman puts it: With Bannon in White House reaching out to Le Pen, Afd etc, the US govt moves from supporting democracy in Europe to actively undermining it.)

Here are some problems this election creates:

1. First and foremost, Trump calls into question the whole basis of the postwar liberal international order.

Gideon Rachman in the FT sums up this concern:

"Mr Trump’s proposed policies threaten to take an axe to the liberal world order that the US has supported and sustained since 1945. In particular, he has challenged two of the main bipartisan principles that underpin America’s approach to the world. The first is support for an open, international trading system. The second is the commitment to the US-led alliances that underpin global security.

Mr Trump is the first avowed protectionist to be elected US president since before the second world war. He has promised to renegotiate America’s “terrible” trade deals, such as the North American Free Trade Agreement and threatened to pull the US out of the World Trade Organisation. He has also threatened tariffs as high as 45 per cent on Chinese goods. If Mr Trump were to follow through on these threats, he would spark a global trade war and could well plunge the world into a recession similar to the depression of the 1930s, which was greatly deepened by America’s adoption of protectionist policies.
Mr Trump’s effect on the global security system could be just as dramatic. The president-elect has questioned whether the US will honour its security commitments to Nato allies and to Japan and South Korea — unless these countries pay more for their own defence. American annoyance at “freeriding” by its allies is a bipartisan concern. What is new is Mr Trump’s overt questioning of the idea that the US will defend its allies from a military attack come what may. This equivocation — combined with Mr Trump’s open admiration for Vladimir Putin, the Russian president — will raise fears that the US will not oppose renewed Russian aggression in Ukraine or eastern Europe."

2.  Makes further trade deals next to impossible;

3.  Provides further evidence of the appeal of right-wing populism and White nativist nationalism--this could embolden groups/parties in Europe including Marine Le Pen.  Similarities between Brexit and Trump's movements (“Take back control”//“Make America great again”) 

4. Trump has suggested that NATO's days are numbered--such remarks have created uncertainty about whether Nato will defend the Baltic states.

5. Trump's affection for Putin could lead the Russian leader to create mischief in Eastern Europe--possible destabilization of Estonia.

6. Impact on Iranian Deal

7. Impact on East Asia

8. US/Western "Soft Power"--some of the figures Trump is considering would be anathema to Europe--esp. former Ambassador John Bolton.

9. Trump's character presents difficulties.

Are there any upsides to Europe of a Trump Presidency? Yes, it could possibly push Europe towards unifying--but I wouldn't hold my breath. One likely consequence, there will be a return to the Bush era of a sharp divide between European and American perspectives on the world.

See the following: red--Europeans with a bad opinion of the President; blue--a good opinion.




More specifically, Trump represents for the Europeans uncertainty, or what the Germans call Unsicherheit (which can be translated as both uncertainty and insecurity).

Noone can be confident what Trump the President stands for. Does he even have a consistent position? Does he stand for anything?

Fukuyama thinks that he is a political and economic nationalist.

Trump does have a consistent and thought-through position: he is a nationalist on economic policy, and in relation to the global political system. He has clearly stated that he will seek to renegotiate existing trade agreements such as Nafta and presumably the WTO, and if he doesn’t get what he wants, he is willing to contemplate exiting from them. And he has expressed admiration for “strong” leaders such as Russia’s Putin who nonetheless get results through decisive action. He is correspondingly much less enamoured of traditional US allies such as those in Nato, or Japan and South Korea, whom he has accused of free-riding on American power. This suggests that support for them will also be conditional on a renegotiation of the cost-sharing arrangements now in place.

My view is that we have to think in terms of five possible Trumps and no one knows which one (or more than one, for they are not mutually exclusive) will predominate:

1. Trump as Economic Populist--he launches a big infrastucture plan (although that is easier said than done) and renogotiates trade deals to allow more protection for US workers (again not easy).

2. Trump as Xenophobe;

3. Trump as Isolationist;

4. Trump as Protectionist;

5 Trump as Cypher--a hollow man who will articulate the views of whichever faction in the GOP or Alt-Right that captures him.

Alternatively, there are those that believe that Trump can turn into a pragmatist or, even if he were a xenophobic protectionist, he would be constrained by constitutional norms and the institutional system.

These 5 Trumps have better and worse implications for Europe, but all are rather alarming.