1. The City will lose the most of its European business without passporting - 20 per cent of revenue seems a fair estimate
2. The City will obviously survive and still be a major financial centre without passporting - but the loss of business will hurt. Anyone who says otherwise isn't in business.
3. This loss will impact jobs and most importantly government tax receipts - it isn't to be scoffed at
4. The entities to watch are non-European ones - with the exception of DB, European banks aren't in London to service EU business - the French ones do that from Paris, the German ones from Frankfurt. But US and Japanese banks are in London to service EU business so the places to look for job losses is there
5. A lot of this will take the form of staff being let go and not replaced and cheaper more junior replacements emerging in Frankfurt rather than someone formally declaring they are moving 5000 jobs to Frankfurt, so like the air going out of a tyre - but some big job moves wouldn't surprise me
5. The City is adaptable and so are its staff - more so than employees elsewhere in the UK - but the dislocation over the next 10 years will be painful with winners and losers
6. From an economics perspective it will be interesting - because Brexit will effect people in London and SE England more I suspect than people in the North etc; I see passporting being lost but free trade in goods is easy to agree
7. Equivalence is not a solution - it isn't as good as passporting, it isn't tested, it doesn't cover retail, credit institutions or insurance.
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